Demographer and former Israeli ambassador to Washington Yoram Ettinger analyzes the implications of the US election results on Israel-US relations
Demographer and Former Ambassador Yoram Ettinger begins his remarks by stating that in order to understand the implications of the recent U.S. presidential elections on U.S.- Israel relations, one must be familiar with the recent and ongoing demographic transformation in the U.S. This constitutes a critical and dramatic milestone.
Amb. Ettinger observes that a battle is now taking place between two distinct cultures. One side is represented by large urban centers while the other side comprises the residents of small-town or rural America, often referred to as “flyover” country. He says that this cultural war has a direct effect on U.S. – Israel relations, and is characterized, in part, by the contrast between a universalist world view versus a world view that values national independence.
Traditional Values versus “Progressivism”
Amb. Ettinger continues by characterizing the cultural war, in part, by the contrast between a world view that values “big government” versus one that prefers limited government. Another aspect of the culture war is the contrast between those who engage in “cancel culture” and those who honor the founding fathers and their values.
The 120 Pilgrims who landed on Plymouth Rock in November 1620, according to Amb. Ettinger, considered themselves a modern version of the “chosen people”, traveling to a “promised land”, and as such, many cities in the U.S. still boast biblical names such as Jerusalem and Hebron, for example.
The adherents of “cancel culture” distance themselves from history and legacy, with its special attitude toward the Jewish State; they distance themselves from values such as patriotism, American heroes, the flag and the motto “In G-d we trust”.
Amb. Ettinger stated that the results of the November 2020 election gave more strength to the cancel culture and that this may be at the expense of the special attitude that the U.S. has traditionally held toward Israel.
Barring extremely dramatic steps in the U.S., Amb. Ettinger states that Biden will become the next president and there will be increased influence of the “progressive”, radical wing of the Democratic party, which is extremely critical of the Jewish state while embracing the Palestinians, as well as the ayatollahs of Iran, Hamas, Gaza and the Palestinian Authority, which might have a significant impact on the powerful Appropriations Committee (which allocates “foreign aid”). The two leading candidates to head this committee are the two most critical members toward Israel.
Balance of Power in U.S. Government
Amb. Ettinger notes that the Appropriations Committee and the Foreign Affairs Committee are co-equal to the presidency. And while in the past, a president may have been tough on Israel, for example, during the term of Bush and his Secretary of State, James Baker, the Congress has always been pro-Israel.
The U.S. form of government is federalism based on Mosaic Law, with a hierarchy of leadership. Amb. Ettinger notes that the word “federal” is derived from the Latin word “foedus”, meaning covenant.
What Role does Presidential Policy Play
Israel has enjoyed an exceptional four years under Trump, who is the first and only president who never exerted pressure on Israel. There have also been historic initiatives carried out by Mike Pompeo, who is a great supporter of Israel. Amb. Ettinger says that there will be a policy shift if Biden does indeed become president. The most significant effect would be indirect, through the Defense Budget. The Defense Budget was cut significantly under Obama/Biden, which resulted in decreased deterrence, applauded by all enemies of the U.S. and Israel.
As Amb. Ettinger assesses Biden’s track record as Vice President and Senator, as well as all of his top advisors, such as Antony Blinken, he expects a return to the days when there was less pressure on Iran. Amb. Ettinger expects Biden to embrace the ayatollahs, who strive to topple every moderate regime in the Middle East, Africa, and other countries. Why does Iran have a presence in South America if not to serve as a springboard to cause havoc in the U.S., implanting sleeper cells that can be activated at Iran’s pleasure.
There will also be a change in attitude toward the Muslim Brotherhood. Obama supported the Muslim Brotherhood against every moderate regime in the Middle East. According to Amb. Ettinger, we will not see an alliance between the White House and regimes that are fighting the Muslim Brotherhood. The opposite will occur.
The subject of Islamic terrorism was severely underrated under the Obama/Biden administration. The phrase “Islamic terrorism” was not mentioned. Even the Fort Hood incident, when 13 soldiers were killed by an Islamic terrorist, was called “workplace violence”, Amb. Ettinger observes.
The New Focus
Instead of Islamic terrorism, Amb. Ettinger says that a Biden administration will focus on “Human Rights” and Blinken will act as Jim Baker did although this approach is out of touch. The emphasis should be on whether a regime is an ally or the U.S. or of the ayatollahs. The Jewish State has the best record on Human Rights in the Middle East, but the Saudis will consider this approach another stab in the back, in addition to the new administration’s support of the ayatollahs. It will also be seen as a stab in the back to all the moderate states in the Middle East, giving a tailwind to rogue regimes in the region.
The Israel-Palestinian Angle
Blinken’s focus is to return to the so-called centrality of the Palestinian issue while ignoring the Middle East reality of recent changes and other peace agreements of the past (with Egypt and Jordan). Amb. Ettinger says that to promote Arab-Israeli peace, it is important to distance oneself from the Palestinian issue. The “Palestine firsters” are wrong. Pro-U.S. regimes do not want a Palestinian state, because it is not necessary and because Arabs have a long memory. A Palestinian state would only add fuel to the fire, not calm it down and Biden has not yet learned this.
A Long History of Palestinian Betrayal of Arab and Muslim Entities
Here, Amb. Ettinger enumerates a long list of Palestinian betrayals. Egypt in the 1950s, Syria in the 1960s, Jordan in the 1970s (noting, especially, Black September, which involved an attempted coup in Jordan and ended in a military conflict) and Lebanon in the 1980s. The Palestinians also supported Saddam Hussein in his invasion of Kuwait. Arabs do not forget! says Amb. Ettinger.
Overview of U.S. – Israel relations
We have experienced an exceptional four years with President Trump. But we may be going back to a period of friction, pressure, tension and punishment under Biden. As far as U.S. allies in the Middle East, the choice is easy for someone who is familiar with the situation. Israel is the only reliable, democratic state, in contrast to the Arabs, who are at best, not reliable, and are often anti-American.
Amb. Ettinger observes that although Obama was cold toward Israel, as a result of reports by intelligence and the military, he came to realize that Israel is a very, very unique force multiplier for the U.S. Israel supplies the U.S. with much more than it receives in “foreign aid”. Realizing this, Obama reluctantly expanded ties with Israel.
What is the outlook for U.S. – Israel ties?
“There is no room for pessimism or fatalism”, states Amb. Ettinger. Reality is much stronger than any misperception of the Middle East. There is only one element in the Middle East that extends the strategic arm of the U.S., and that is Israel. Common sense and realism shall prevail.
In answer to a question on whether Biden will continue to develop accords with other Arab states, Amb. Ettinger said that there are surely a few more Arab, African and Muslim nations that are interested in joining the process but they are hesitant now because they do not know what to expect. If Trump could continue, there would be rapid expansion. Trump supports those who are threatened by the ayatollahs. That threat, plus the threat of the Muslim Brotherhood, played a key role in forming the accords. These states want the U.S. defense umbrella and they are not certain if this will continue with Biden. They remember the Obama years, with his support for the ayatollahs.
Another motivation for Muslim or Arab states to form accords with Israel is Israel’s stature in the U.S., which would bring those states closer to the U.S. The higher Israel’s status in the U.S., the more likely more Arab states will form peace accords, Amb. Ettinger says.
How does Israel’s Receipt of Foreign Aid impact on Israel’s Independence?
Another question asked of Amb. Ettinger was: To what extent does Israel’s receipt of American aid limit its freedom of action and how can it break free? In answer to this, Amb. Ettinger pointed out that essentially all Israeli prime ministers from 1948 until 1992 strove for good relations with the U.S., but never at the expense of freedom of action. They acted independently and did not need a green light to advance Israeli interests in Judea and Samaria, the Golan or Jerusalem.
In fact, Ben Gurion expanded the territory of Israel by 50%, compared to the ’47 Partition Plan, despite heavy pressure by Truman, his State Department and the CIA to end the so-called “occupation” of the Negev, parts of the Galilee, parts of the coastal plain and Western Jerusalem. Eshkol did not seek a green light to re-unite Jerusalem or build the initial neighborhoods outside of Jerusalem and Gush Etzion, and so forth. Golda Meir did not wait for a green light to expand settlements. They all did this despite the glaring red light coming out of Washington. Begin destroyed the nuclear reactor in Iraq, in defiance of Reagan’s brutal opposition and subsequent punishment of Israel. Shamir expanded the settlements in defiance of Bush and Baker. When Israeli prime ministers act independently, it leads to increased respect towards Israel.
How should this World View Influence our Actions Today?
Amb. Ettinger says, “When I hear that Israel cannot apply Israeli law to the Jordan Valley and parts of Judea and Samaria or all of Area C because, supposedly, nothing can be done without a green light from Washington, I wonder whether people really know Washington and I wonder why people have forgotten about the track record of all prime ministers from Ben Gurion to Shamir, which defies such an unrealistic statement. Israel must not ask for permission to build in Givat Hamatos in Jerusalem. This is a national humiliation, which does nothing to enhance Washington’s respect for the current government of Israel.
Should sovereignty be declared during the next two Months?
Nadia Matar, one of the co-chairwomen of the Sovereignty Movement along with Yehudit Katsover, asks whether sovereignty should be declared within the next two months. In answer, Amb. Ettinger replies that there is “no difference between these two months and any other two months. Does it make more sense to assert independence after a new president takes office? Israel must pursue her own interests. Reality should drive policy”.
Amb. Ettinger continues by saying “Sadly, the main target for additional effort is not Washington but Jerusalem. There should be openness to connecting the E-1 area to Ma’ale Adumim, openness to building in Givat Hamatos, openness to applying Israeli law in Area C, openness to uprooting illegal Palestinian building in Area C or the Jordan Valley. Sadly, we have a government in Jerusalem that acts as if is neutral, rather than an Israeli government”.