Dr. Dan Diker, president of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, considers Israeli sovereignty over the Jordan Valley and the central highlands to be no less than existential for Israel. He describes the idea of a Palestinian state as tantamount to national suicide
Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency is seen by many as a historic opportunity to advance a diplomatic initiative aligned with the Israeli right. Others, however, remind them of the “Deal of the Century” that President Trump promoted during his previous term, which included the establishment of a Palestinian state on approximately 70% of the territory. Dr. Dan Diker, president of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs (JCPA), discusses this matter and its broad and immediate ramifications.
“In his first term, President Trump proposed the ‘Deal of the Century,’ which clearly recognized that Israel must maintain control over the Jordan Valley, as well as Israel’s need for defensible borders, an approach that enjoys a full consensus in Israel. While the deal ultimately did not come to fruition, it established a fundamental principle for the future, that the application of Israeli law to the Jordan Valley and the central highlands is a strategic, existential necessity for Israel, and no progress can be made with any Palestinian entity without the fulfilment of this condition.”
Since this political and security basis was determined, significant changes and events have occurred – foremost among them, the October 7 massacre – which have led to new perceptions and a revised understanding of reality. “Since the ‘Deal of the Century,’ the genocide of the century occurred, fundamentally altering the security landscape. After the failure of Oslo, Hamas taught us a lesson: we cannot expose ourselves to future threats to our sovereignty, including from the east,” says Dr. Diker. He warns of the increasing risk of Jordan’s security collapse at the hands of pro-Iranian elements seeking to attack Israel from the east, while pro-Iranian terrorist groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad are positioning themselves in Palestinian cities to join the campaign to destroy Israel.
The legacies of Allon and Rabin
That Hamas was able to penetrate Israel 21 kilometers beyond the Gaza border on October 7 underscores the potential risk of a similar attack targeting Israel’s narrowest region at its center. “This is a real existential threat from the east,” he asserts. “Israel has neither strategic depth nor maneuvering space, which is why we must secure our sovereignty over the area.” Diker believes that both Yigal Allon and Yitzhak Rabin would have supported this approach. “If they were alive today, they would explain the need for defensible borders to safeguard our sovereignty, and that in order to secure these defensible borders, we must maintain control and sovereignty over the central highlands and the Jordan Valley. The elevation differential between the Dead Sea and the central highlands is 4,200 feet, creating a natural iron wall that embodies the principle of defensible borders. Without Israeli sovereignty and control over this region, we cannot protect the Tel Aviv metropolitan area and the 80% of Israel’s population that lives between Netanya and Ashkelon.”
Is this reality, which enjoys a broad consensus in Israel, also clear to the White House? Dr. Diker is unsure, but he is certain of one thing: the Trump administration must hear this unequivocal message from the Israeli government. “We must brand our message clearly, stating that there can be no negotiations with a Palestinian Authority that has glorified terrorism, pays salaries to terrorists and their families, and systematically engages in the dehumanization and delegitimization of Israel – that, in effect, paved the way for the October 7 massacre.”
As someone who closely follows the signals coming from Trump’s inner circle, Diker anticipates that Israel will soon be presented with a comprehensive package deal that includes normalization with Saudi Arabia, broad cooperation against Iran’s regional influence, and a requirement to accept some form of Palestinian political entity in Judea and Samaria. For Diker, agreeing to such a demand would be nothing short of national suicide.
Israel’s security cannot be based on a piece of paper
“We have seen the cost of this danger in the murder of our children, our wives, our citizens – including babies. Israel cannot rely on a piece of paper when it comes to its security. There is no Israeli security without a physical IDF presence on the border and, in some cases, beyond it. Hamas taught us a bloody and painful lesson, that technology alone cannot ensure our security. When put to the test, we know that agreements do not work. Any future arrangement must first be based on the acceptance of Israel’s security needs – only then can discussions move forward.”
“Gaza was a de facto state,” Diker reminds us. “Hamas had full civilian and military control, and we learned that when we withdraw, we are murdered. When terrorists use abandoned cities as safe havens, our ability to pursue them is severely compromised. The only reason we haven’t faced an October 7-style attack from Palestinian Authority-controlled areas in Judea and Samaria is the continuous presence of the IDF in those regions. We are already seeing Iranian efforts to smuggle weapons and operatives into cities such as Nablus, Jenin, and Tulkarm. If not for our presence there, we would be paving the way for an even more dangerous reality than in Gaza, as these territories dominate Ben Gurion Airport, the coastal plain, and the entire greater Tel Aviv area. We are dealing with the most supportive and understanding U.S. administration Israel has ever seen, and this administration must hear these messages from us.”
Diker further emphasizes that Israel must repeatedly clarify to Trump’s team that the conflict in Judea and Samaria is not about territory – it is religious and ideological. “We cannot commit national suicide,” he reiterates.
Regarding the possibility of reaching an agreement with Saudi Arabia without making payment in Palestinian currency, Dr. Diker urges Israelis to take off our Israeli hats and don Saudi robes to better understand the regional mindset, as inhabitants of the Middle East rather than as products of the West.
“Mohammed bin Salman needs to show that he is highly sensitive to the Palestinian cause, which has become a symbol of victimhood versus oppression in anti-Israel propaganda. He cannot ignore it, but his primary concern is securing defense guarantees from the U.S. He needs weapons and technological supplies, including nuclear technology. This matters far more to him than the Palestinian issue. However, in order to defuse tensions among his own public, he must acknowledge the Palestinian cause, which has become an obsession in the Arab street.”
In the Muslim world, where perception is key, Diker notes, honor plays a paramount role. This means that the Saudi leader can demonstrate goodwill in various ways. In this context, Diker recalls a 2006 discussion in Washington with former Jordanian Prime Minister Abdul-Salam al-Majali and a high-ranking Palestinian Authority official regarding possible alternatives to a Palestinian state, in which he found a receptive audience. One of the proposals discussed was a federation under joint Jordanian-Israeli control. “We must be proactive rather than allowing ourselves to be dragged into a security-diplomatic process with the U.S. on the Palestinian issue. The conditions that existed at the time of the ‘Deal of the Century’ are no longer relevant to today’s security reality. It’s time to finally bury the Oslo mindset and propose alternatives that will ensure our sovereignty and presence along and beyond our borders, while respecting our neighbors.
Dr. Diker’s position is unequivocal: “If we must choose between normalization with Saudi Arabia that includes recognition of a Palestinian state, then we should forgo normalization.”
The interview was first published in Issue 18 of the Sovereignty Journal. Click here for the issue.